Most Likely to Succeed: Preparing Our Kids for the Innovation Era
by Wagner, Tony
Published: August 18, 2015
Read: November 20, 2021
Review
Reads more like a political speech or self help book than an academic book. The book does describe many real problems like how school drains creativity and doesn't teach job skills and how our labor market needs different skills as rote tasks are left to computers. But, its support is full of fluffy, "inspirational" language with carefully crafted metaphors and historical lens to point and laugh at how obvious the problems are and correct their solution is. Avoids grappling with conflicting views and offers anecdotes claiming its well supported by high status individuals and evidence, but they didn't share the evidence here. I believe this is the book's intention as they even mention near the end how this book and their accompanying movie can provide cover to reformers within schools. I not against their vision rejecting college rankings and standardized tests in favor of a focus on self directed, cross disciplinary projects and discussion based learning focusing on the 4 C's: collaboration, critical thinking, creativity, and communication. But, I didn't enjoy the writing and would have stopped reading if I didn't care so much about education and found a few good, new points. "Our opportunity—and our obligation to our youth—is to reimagine our schools, and give all kids an education that will help them thrive in a world that values them for what they can do, not the facts that they know."
Notes
#Book Intro • Teachers underpaid and do standardized tests and we say thank you • Tony edtech nonprofit, English for a decade, ran a school, 5 books on education. Global achievement gap • Ted spent in tech from Stanford. Startup on semiconductors. Vc charles river best performing 1995-1999. Ted got interested in education • Summary of breakfast ◦ Rapid advancement in innovation is eliminating routine job leaving millions at risk ◦ Critical skills economy needs are what schools destroy ◦ Education policies only serve to harm students and disillusion teachers. Now disconnected from anything essential • We made a feature film • Tony got doctorate from education from Harvard and was against current • reflect on your school years and what aspects impacted you • What you have to do to succeed in education ba what society needs • chapter1- why society places so much value on credentials as people’s instrinic quality, our countries caste • Chapter 2 - purpose of education • Chapter 3 - what’s at stake • Chapter 4 - college have impact on primary school • Chapter 5- college is key to preparing for life? • Chapter 6 - teaching, learning assessment • Chapter 7- systemic change • Chapter 8-educational r&d • Test scores won’t be most likely to succeed part 1 • boy coded naturally and did well, banking after getting to college. “Money can buy happiness “ is one idea he had. Finance in 2008, so started delivering mail in entertainment then got to be talent manager. “Parents had no business giving us advice” socializing is valuable at college, but didn’t really help. Likes alum matter ◦ Grads school could be negative signal as they couldn’t get a job ◦ The boy now advises doing gap year and posting passion chapter 1 our education dna • Obsessed with test scores and college • 11% of business leaders think college doesn’t satisfies prepare them for work place • Recent college grads are either unemployed or hold a job any college degree could do • Even most engaged voters uninformed, 20% correct on basic tests • Parents want “their child to be happy” • College survivor has dpoubled since 1950 • Knowledge is now availed to all, now we need to: ◦ Ask great questions ◦ Efficetively collaborate ◦ Critically analyze info ◦ Form indendent opinions ◦ Communicate information • But achool sucks at this since smartphone couldn’t handle their test • Cave people just taught, then craftsman then apprecenticeships, elite ruling rich class of fine arts and rhetoric ◦ These ideas couldn’t scale ◦ Apprenticeship was instead of credentials • Grammar schools for monks to transcribe bible, boarding school ◦ Guiding principles were standardization, minimization of error, time efficiency, intolerant of creative desperation from norm • 18th century, Prussian model ◦ 8 year primary of reading writing and arthimwric ◦ Invented teachers, grades, classes, and subjects ◦ Impart early industrial economy skills • Massachusetts took from Prussian model ◦ Economy needed single task interchangeable, conformity factory workers • Assembly line model of 20th ◦ Adults that can do repetitive tasks with minimal error ◦ US got dominance • Last century, industrial started weaning and more about information ◦ Us expanded education to meet this • 1980s question international competitiveness, a nation at risk ◦ Redesign or incremental with standardized tests • 2002 no child left behind with standardized tests machine • Obama 2012 race to top bribed states to hold teachers accountable for test, ◦ Teach to the test, but no real effect on global scores • Decided to chase Singapore to kids who cram, instead of innovation economy • Student and teacher engagement have plummeted, 80% of students engaged in 5th but 40% by 9th • Teachers dead last in opinions matter at work • Knowledge now free commodity, don’t need teacher or library • Content knowledge no longer matters, more about what you can do with what you know • Need smart creatives, who Google wants • Riding a bicycle ◦ Textbooks would be memorization ◦ None would ride a bike ◦ So many standardized cheap tests with bell curve ◦ Elite bicycle college needed with test prep giving much money ◦ Blah blah blah ◦ Bicycle achievement gap seeking to close global gap on bicycle test scores ◦ Hard to correlate riding bike skill because rank ordering is hard if multifaceted • modern caste system ◦ Learning by doing is for lower class ◦ Learning by abstract is for gifted upper class ◦ Physicist with Harvard ms, chemist with Harvard ms, English professor with Stanford PhD vs master chef, master electrician, superb 8th English teacher ▪ What’s better? ▪ They are paid the same sooo ◦ No shop in school • Finland is what many consider best education system in world ◦ 10th grade choose between academic track and career technical education track developed with business with good jobs ◦ 45% choose technical education ◦ 12th graders in us had many say they would do technical if was option chapter 2 purpose of education • Overarching purpose of education is to ◦ teach cognitive and social skills ◦ Prepare responsible citizens ◦ Build character ◦ Help students in self discovery ◦ Inspire students with greatest works ◦ Prepare for productive careers • All is done, but tension of priorities • Is you could set priorities what would you do? • How do you do these priorities and measure that? • Kindergarten play or better prepare for college • Aspiration vs practice ◦ Schools all about content in practice, but adminstrators love more high minded ones ◦ Students spend a lot of day memorizing things they will forget like the Crimea war ◦ Ineffective pedagogy all the time ◦ Not one student retained mastery after the summer in on study, all Fs • Defining purpose ◦ Let schools set their own goals ◦ The old routine task model hasn’t changed, but at least it was clear and executed at the time • Passion and purpose to make world better ◦ Literacy and numeracy is basic, but beyond that ◦ 70% of Americans don’t know constitution apparently ◦ Young adults without passion isn’t going great • Critical skills ◦ Guiding experience is around students passions into competency • Natural beauty is harderto convey with rigorous tests • Leaders all about empty intivatrs and metrics • Even charter schools suck apparently • Should now about boosting Standardized test scores, get students with acceptable graduation rates, get into college that please parents, have bell curve chapter 3 what’s at stake • Idea 1: ◦ us falling behind China too ◦ Hard core education reform ◦ Bad priorities equal opportunity hurt • Myth 1: is falling behind ◦ Us in middle of pack, mediocrity and run into the ground in global test ◦ Other countries grind tests so hard, and doesn’t measure collaboration, ethics, creativity, innovation ◦ Finland have 15 recess minutes for every hour, and much less test grinding ◦ Asian leaders worry about graduate innovation ◦ Wrong framing to be test prep ◦ Us has most innovative companies and Nobel prizes • Myth 2: if only we could fix under performaning schools ◦ Failing schools protected by unions, charter schools savior ◦ Expect parents to pick good schools ◦ Charter schools don’t overperfom, Stanford education outcome as many charters underperform in math as regular schools ◦ Charter schools still measured by test scores so not that innovative ◦ KIPP had very few graduate college, but many go ◦ Crisis not about education • Education will be most important part of American future(really) • Economic stakes ◦ 20th century had great tide rising, ▪ att with few decision makers and thousands of structured tasks ▪ Easy to work your way up, stability and defined advancement ▪ Workforce got the job done and rose to global power ◦ Tool and computers destroy structured job, no routine job is safe ◦ Future ▪ Inverted pyramid of agile and innovative employees ▪ Entry level much harder to come by ▪ New area will be much more productive ▪ Even teachers that just administer lectures and grade multiple choice, then you too will be replaced. But if you offer informed guidance and support, you are invaluable” ▪ If we foster creativities, thousands of jobs will be created here • Primaries now won by extremists because special interest pounce on promary votes because undervalued • Need educated citizenry ◦ Americans believe 57% climate change is man made, sharp differences in politics ◦ Few HS take stats ◦ Future gens have so much debt ◦ Few students learn how to weigh evidence ◦ Jury ready? ◦ 5 habits of mind, critical thinking ▪ Evidence, how do we know what we know ▪ Viewpoint, could there be another point of views ▪ Connections, cause and effect ▪ Conjecture, could it have been another way ▪ Relevance, who cares does it matter part 2 • Student from disadvantaged community wishes someone walk him though options
Chapter 4 • Education of what gets evv CBC Ed dcgff do Ed gc taught is what has been done historically, high stakes tests, college admissions • While schools are very different the similarities are ◦ What we teach our kids ◦ How we teach and test our kids • Elementary school has Montessoro school as model, we will look after 7 where little innovation • Montessori is about discovery and risks • Problem is test prep in 3 and on • High school all about college • Math and verbal tests are all about property values and assessment of school • Math ◦ About error free rote ◦ Categorization, procedure, etc like integral ◦ Slide ruler was instrument of math until 1970, looking up algs was hard so memorizing was good ◦ 4/5 of adults don’t use math beyond 6th grade ◦ Students can’t use wolfram alpha ◦ Could blame textbooks and businesses but also teachers ◦ Stats is much more important than calculus • reimagined math ◦ Year 1 ▪ High school math, teach about using calculator for math operations and how to represent ▪ Geometry, trig, and calculus basic concepts with collaborative ways to apply them to real world stuff ◦ Year 2 ▪ Probability, stats, decision making, values, ethics ◦ Year 3 ▪ Estimation techniques, math modeling, alg development, and data analysis ◦ Year 4 ▪ Capstone about math ▪ Learn how to find and learn math concepts ◦ Challenges ▪ Choose organization they care about and make website to support org, use social media campaign cost effective to get support, use stats to analyze data ▪ Predict world population in year 2024 ▪ Estimate cost of living and what you need to pay over period of time ▪ Hobby create new stats and assess its value then present ◦ Programming and math would be across different subjects • English ◦ Century ago, standardized reading scud books cost with hand written ◦ Now we need persuasion, communication skills ◦ Poor communication skills and critical thinking and writing is top problem ◦ Writing ▪ Learning to write requires constant writing with real structured feedback ▪ Writers workshop approach ▪ Flat score since 1998 writing, 21 below basic ▪ Prompt in task is Write about some information technology and why it’s valuable, not important at all ▪ We teach mechanics but not letting them want to write ▪ Gerund and all these parts of speech don’t make you a better writer ◦ Presentations ▪ So few students need to do one speech in front of class ▪ Leaders in army couldn’t deliver content without powerpoint when power went out ◦ Dyslexic actually do pretty well in life, but education relegated ◦ Correlation between life outcomes and hearing more words early in life ◦ Can expect words no one uses so you get a bell curve, even though well past marginal return ◦ No way to standardized if you let kids read what them want ◦ If then reward can actually decrease drive if already enjoyed ◦ Common core ▪ Is common core a good standards? All about college readiness ▪ About more critical thinking and writing, but more expensive testing to being cut. ▪ Will assess no soft skills and decrease arts ◦ Teachers need to motivate learning chapter 8 history • history way less in past, way more now • 20th century: recall important historical facts • 21st century: critically analyze and have thoughtful thesis • Used to all use the same history book for all grades • History at its best shapes world view, critically analyze and constructive debates. Students learn much better • Science ◦ “Science must be taught experimentally” “it is a way of discovering ◦ Old model, understand basic lab produce cures ◦ New model, develop scientific creativity ◦ Basic science conceptual questions did little better after physics question ▪ Barely did well on these simple tests tested before or after physics concepts even at Harvard ▪ Did as well on basic questions as midterm with much more complex questions ◦ Ideal for standardized tests are about clear correct answers and easy to create bell curve • Foreign Language ◦ 20th century read and write, grammar it’s what the ap test does ◦ 21th speaking and culture knowledge ◦ Less than 15% remember their foreign language ◦ “Key is to speak to learn, not learn to speak” ◦ Auto translation software is pretty good for reading and writing ◦ Future is automatic translator ◦ If you don’t gain fluency doesn’t matter, l ◦ If you want it to succeed must start young and make it fun • Arts for problem solving and integrated in other courses • Opportunity cost ◦ We fail to innovate in education imagine if we had telegrams still, luckily most other countries do the same ◦ Creative problem solver is what companies what but we swuash that by having a correct answer and no risk • Play passion and purpose help people put on time to become great, you can with your passion make the world better
Chapter 5 golden ring , college degree • College degree is gold standard • At best, it’s about turning aimless teenagers into personalized identity and citizens • College cost in past three decades has increased at 3x cost of living, even better than healthcare ◦ Arms race of us news and world report ◦ No faculty support professionally have grown very fast ◦ Harvard president don’t like unfavorable publicity as success in student learning is hard to measure and not rewarded, instead easier to raise sat of incoming class and build new libraries with new money ◦ Higher enrollment and grants and us news more important than student learning • Payoff ◦ 45k is starting salary but many don’t get jobs in their field • 2013, 7 in 10 had debt of 28.4K, many with credit cards too • Passionless caters to pay • Emotional cost ◦ Excellent sheep book about mental health issues in students aiming for college and in college ◦ 2010, 45.6% reported feeling hopeless. 83% felt overwhelmed. 37.7% said it was difficult to function so depressed ◦ Kids who receive message they aren’t good enough in race for college • Learning in college ◦ Academically adrift book, majority of college students learn little or nothing on critical thinking and writing ▪ Look at Collegial learning assessment, open ended questions with resources ▪ Does data on plane right after crash mean it’s unsafe? What data would you wish you had? ▪ No statically significant gains for 45% in two years and 37% over 4 years ◦ 20% of college graduates can barely do some math and read complex book ◦ 89% of president think critical thinking is very important in education • Professors ◦ Little dissertations will be read by your advisor and maybe a few other specialized people, not even your dissertation community ◦ Tenure is about research and politics, not about teaching • Us news and world report very important ◦ Like ranking artists ◦ Lower Acceptance rate and perceived prestige, retention, not one is about how students learn ◦ Reed college pulled out ◦ What if we used the CLA, critical thinking. Would change everything • 60% of college grads depend on parents out of college • Even elite schools don’t prepare students • 14% of Americans believe college isn’t preparing students, 96% of college leaders thought they were doing a good job • Business majors are 2nd in unemployment, humanities catch up because admissions like different skills • Obama called college an economic imperative, but really it’s a modern caste system graduating tepid graduates • Hasn’t been this unequal in income since roaring 20s, creates elite isolated from society • Richer are going to school much more than previous years • College hasn’t increased voter engagement • Value of college degree ◦ Bill gates says college grads earn a millionaire more over their lingering ◦ But goes away substantially if person gets accepted but didn’t go to the exclusive college ◦ “Didn’t become smart driven and success oriented because they went to an elite school, they got accepted because they are smart driven and success oriented” ◦ Bias in organization ◦ Google doesn’t care about degree
Part 3 millinium interview Some Harvard grad wrote to elite colleges asking if they would rather her do ap tests or research project. She loved it and hated the boring classes. She went to Harvard and struggled to only take the classes she wanted. Most are going to consulting and finance, but if they were encouraged deeper and enter our ship hype train.
Chapter 6 teaching learning and assessing • lecture based doesn’t make sense anymore • More collobararive shown in crease pass rate by half a standard dev • Mooc completion rates are under 5% • Most new teaching tools are just rehashing the same broken system • 80% of college students just reread textbooks, and lose 70% of what we read eventually • Socratic discussion in small groups • You can easily lecture 10 or 50 because just passive • “Peer instruction a user manual” book, student discussion and projects and collaborate ◦ Dramatic gains in conceptual understanding ◦ Actually better in problem solving too ◦ And love of science ❤️ ◦ Why Harvard doesn’t have teach thing so complaints, Maybe it works for rich harvard • India low income after school programs, get volunteers of concept tests, 40% success rate with less than 1% naturally ◦ social workers outperformed the best teachers ◦ “Teachers irrespective of skill all want to teach and assume some skill level and lecture to this group,most students gain very little from lecture and only option social workers have is to let the kids struggle. Social workers help students with issues outside of class” ◦ Almost no tech, raise flash cards. Then turn to neighbor and talk to correct. Short video to clear up the concept of not, if not then student asked if anyone can clear things up • Online forum has motivation of curiosity and students know who had excelled having talked so much • Students engage in frequent debate • Assessment ◦ Kills curiosity ◦ Scholastic aptitude test, college board, started to figure out who to accept ◦ Sat designed to get bell curve, chosen by college board for familiarity not because ability is distributed on a bell curve ◦ All kids have prisoner dilemma to study ◦ Even college board says test is just a modest predictor of first year gpa ◦ 4B revenue per year • Advanced placement ◦ Started with elite schools ◦ 40 ap tests and exam ◦ teachers in some schools try to get parents to do less ap, but still packed classes ◦ 5 on ap psychology and take final from intro and 90% fail and perform no better in class than those who didn’t take ap class ◦ Conceptual question don’t correlate well with formulic questions • State standardized tests ◦ Distrust of teachers and unions, calls for accountability like no child left behind and race to top • Teachers advice ◦ Find teamup with colleague ◦ Assess your assessments and quizzes for memorization ◦ Gauge lecturing vs discussion, should take less than 20% ◦ Are students assessed on the questions they ask as well as the question they provide ◦ Opportunity to do self defined project, should be >25% chapter 12 reimagine education • Not incrementable improvement • Education outcomes ◦ Not what you know but what you can do ◦ Content knowledge, skill, and will ◦ Will and motivation for learning is most important but most damaged by school • Scouts earn merit badges, about adults judging • 4 cs: collboaration, critical thinking, creative problem solving, communication • High school is certificate of mastery with merit badges and internships and projects and modes of inquiry • Do sampling of students to see how critical skills are going • Any skill that can be evaluated by computer can be done by a computer • Too many teachers taught the old way • Finland ◦ closed 1970 of schools of education, ◦ Teachers must get masters with a year long apprecnticeship under best teachers ◦ Teachers spend less time teaching so more time to help parents and students ◦ Trust through professionalism • Instead of us giving rais based on masters, assess and educate on demonstrated new competency • Teacher effectiveness should be evaluated based on portfolios like students • 1:200 education rd vs defense • Rd all about increasing test scores with track record • GitHub let you judge a candidate without credential, employers get better edge • Purdue got competency based major • Thiel says 2nd degree college is dounce hat in disguise • Waterloo with internships and makes college much more effective • Coding boot camps with great placement • 44% of law school grads didn’t have job • YC more exclusive than MBA • Electrician has less status than aimless grad • More spent on prison than education • Tufts get videos for app, some get no tests, will start looking for passion and look for future remarkable alumni • High tech high, sd high school that has everything we want • Vanderarch funded expansion of great charter schools in nyc, but because it didn’t result in the immediate test scores bump Bill Gates wanted he was replaced in 2006 • Zuckerberg funded to fix school to no effect, but then future project guy came and talked to kids and was like what do you want to accomplish. They got Shaq to fund the basketball girl team and the effect of hope on the school was big. • Liverdale country school interesting without ap, admissions actually improved char more distinctive • Character development lab, ◦ Curiosity not good predictor of grades ◦ Senior 2 month projects • Beaver country day school, programming with teams of kids teaching each other • Pro typing and nonlinear learning • African leadership academy in South Africa is accelerated high school with entrepreneurship ◦ Best question is what problem did you see and what did you do to solve it • What you can do? ◦ Change happens from urgency when community embraces it with Luke powerful film ◦ Strategy based on community ◦ Stay with quick wins ◦ How to do? ▪ Watch our film at event and have community discussions ▪ bring alumni wnd students into convo ▪ Get priority skills and assess schoools current skills ▪ Get peer driven seminars and at least collaborative assignments ▪ What to do less of? ◦ Tony wrote change leadership group from decade of research ◦ Leaders guide to 20th century education, proven body of work ◦ Likelytosucceed.org • Parent or teacher? ◦ Sparklist.org ◦ Small team success can inspire change ◦ Have most likely to succeed as cover • Innovation vs education • Us education doesn’t represent its strengths
Reality check: Not everyone can be an entrepreneur in a world with power of specialization. So political no address of counter arguments and straw man. Don’t you want better teachers, innovate students, and bell labs for education. The biggest problem with holistic assessment is how can you know if works