How Democracies Die: What History Reveals About Our Future
by Levitsky, Steven
Published: January 16, 2018
Read: March 28, 2018
Review
Finally, an intense analysis of what is wrong with the current political climate and this no-compromise scorched-earth policy people are increasingly taking on political issues. Levistky walks us through how democracies have failed in the past and how they succeed. I have always felt uneasy by this increasing polarization and obstruction in Congress and across the country, but the author drives home the real cost of this, democracy. Specific issues are just a narrow focus of this grander issue. This book convincingly shows the United States is not immune to dictatorship and authoritarian rule. America is showing striking parallels to emerging authoritarian regimes. A love of democracy doesn't prevent its destruction when everyone decides their opponent is a threat to democracy and their existence. With such an opponent, is it really so bad to maybe take away some of their rights? 70% of politically engaged citizens are scared of their opponents. That is a very frightening statistic. This book was absolutely enlightening compelling me to stare at the danger right in front of my eyes. Though a very political book, it is admiringly bipartisan presenting facts across history providing great support for his claims to present facts. Definitely, a must-read for both sides of the aisle.
Notes
#Book
We often think they die at hands of man's with guns. But can also die by elected officials subverting the system that elected then a slow or fast procress. People don't realize what happens. People still vote and media still published but opposition is bullied and punished. 8 of 10 rated by Venezuela but widely considered single party authocraxy. There are patterns. Can leaders be constrained by constitution? Will parties reject populists? Two norms protect democracies more than constitution. Mutual toleration and forbeance. Avoid party fight to death using their temp power to solidify their position. Roots in deep race and culture wars causing intense polarization. Mussolini was given role of prime minister to try to suppress and satisify dissidents and admits fear of socialists by giving them reigns of power by Italain king. Insiders see a popular outsider and break ranks to try to gain some of their popularity giving the outsider legitmacy. Hugo, Mussolini, and Hilter were all practically handed power. We like to think it was the people, but no solid majorities opposed them. It's about political parties. Authoritarians have 4 warning sogns: reject democratic rules, denies legitimacy of opponents, willingness to curtail liberties of opponents and media, encourages or allows violence. Populist are anti establishment tell people there is an elitist rule not democracy and promise to restore power to the people. Populist end up weakening democracy. Parties are gatekeepers and should expel grassroots movement from itself and not put them on the ballot. Don't normalize them. And don't favor extremists on your side instead of mainstream centered people on the other sode. In Belgium and Finland, parties rejected anti democratic parties and supported existing ones. This could be seen as more besucracy entrancing. CREATE APOLTICAL MOVEMENT.
Gatekeeping
US has had it fair share of extremists with support. Huy E Long assinated, and McCarthy and some antisemitic priest on the radio.party conventions make decisions in Smokey back rooms with the organization man making decisions. Filter out dangerous candidates as well as women and minorities. Henry trod antisemitic dabbled in police's. Was most popular politician but party leaders didn't like him so he couldn't make it. George Wallace had to run independent. In 1970s, primaries became more democratic, democrats had super delegates republicans didnt. Now, you needed an intense network of propaganda in every state to win primaries which means allies across the country. Rigjt foe 25 years. More democracy meant more open to outsiders. Once keys fall, the opposition exists but is a shell. Need to stack the deck with constitutional and legal changes. Gerrymandering, ban political ads on non public tv. After civil war, former black slaves became majority voters 97% in 1876 and 11% in 1898. Blacks were usually republican. Democrats were under threat and so 11 of these post confedracy states created changed consiturion and good square laws to create a good square democratic majority. Couldn't use race, so poll tax and literacy test. Defense of democracy often used as reason to subvert it. Hitler had fire and used it to destroy civil libertaries. Bush had sky high approval and patriot act passed a month after 9/11.
Trump
Peopls wigb enough money and celebrity skipped invisible primary. More democracy means more open. More money in politics meant parties insiders less weak. New media environment through social media allowed people to become households names overnight without a filter. He had to win 3 primaries before he got a single party insiders support. He had the votes and won primaries fair and square party could do nothing. Big names denounced him. 75% of republicans believe election could be stolen from trump. He met all myths of authocrats. His claims of voter fraud undermined demo, birthed and criminal hillary, tolerated and reviled in violence pay legal fees, media dishonest increase libel laws. No other candidate has met all 4 before, rarely meet one. 2 ways to power, given power thinking they can subdue them and ideology collusion so people join forces because agendas overlap enough. But party leaders backed Trump eventually and didn't put country before party. No matter the candidate the electorate was becoming unloving and highly partisans meaning it would be a close race.
Subverting Democracy
Autocrats dont like the straight jacket of checls and balances and feel attacls ad threats amd get more hostile. Each individual step feels minor. Tilt playong field and refreees. Peru guy was completely counter by Congress them one day he appeared and dissolved Congress and the constiruion. Control courts and checks and balances, a weapon and selective enforcement. Tax authorities strong and police. Just quietly fire and replace with loyalists. Pay courts, increase their size, increase the votes neccedssyr for changes, dissolve courts, impeach those that can't be bought. Powerful and legal weapons to hobble key plsyers. Easy to buy off media and opponents giving special access. 21 business invited to Kremlin and told if they stated out kid politics they would make money. Richest man in Russia started generously funding opposition. He was arrested and imprisoned for a decade. Opposition parties starved.
Guardrails of Democracy
Watergate got nixon. Supreme court reversed Abraham Lincoln consolidation of power. Ww1 Germany had a strong constitution that fell to hitler. America's constitution has been emulated go much less success. No operating manual specific enough as shown by supreme court. Thin tissue of convention preventing President from capturing refs like FBI. Unwritten rules protecting democraxy as well as wealth. Norms are unseen and o their importance. Mutual tolerance of enemies accepting them as legit if they follow rules. Not existential threats. Very new idea. First political parties were at each other's throats and thought they were existential risks. Alien and sedition act. If existential threat, then any measure even authorial and anarchist might be neccessary. See Spanish 1930s. Justify consolidation by labeling opponents as existence threat. Forbearance is restraint and not using powers to hilt threatening democracy. Game we want to keep playing. Both teams must want to keep playing just like a pickup game. 2 term limit, even popular ones followed it. Uproar over it until fdr then passage of amendment. Opposite of this is institutional combat disregarding democracy to use all your powers. Maduro chavisti court ruled all bill limiting President power unconstitutional stopping opposition party in congress. 50% needed to remove prez if mentally incapaticted. Used this as impeachment needi ng 2/3 not in spirit. Needs both sides to play and forbearance and mutual toleration go hand in hand.often falls of democracy are preceded by overreaching of norms that are responded to. In Chile, socialist cold war stuff. Prez wanted to push socialist policies though he didn't have votes. So he played hardball and used legal weapons of impeachment Decided to have mutual exclusive world view. This causes people so socially separated and anti system groups that reject democracy. Eventually prez party calls for dissolving of Congress military rule where generals rule Chile for 16 years.
Unwritten Rules of US Democracy
Fdr had supreme court blocking. Fdr proposed supreme court packing that would have destroyed norm of not messing with other branches. Supreme court would become politicized with manipulation if size and selection. Jefferson expanded court to 7 to give him another appointment. Took years of career politicians to become less win to kill. Slavery, 1830-1860 12t incidents of violence including stabbing, canning, amd pulling of pistols. Civil war broke democracy. Lincoln suspended habeas corpus. Need to rebuild norms. Waving bloody shirt of past wrongs. Eventually folded it up though some fights including 10->7 sc and prez impeachment. Denfrancisement of blacks becoming the norm allowing mutual tolerance in early 1900s enabling many reforms and norms for decades. 1888 Americna common wealth admired our norms enforcing checks and balances. People who can check prez should routinely underuse their power and be watch dogs not attack dogs or lap dog.some powers that could destroy democracy: prez eo, pardon, court packing, Congress has filibuster, Senate advice and content, and impeachment. Prez has built up imperial powers across century. Can go around legistive branch with executive orders, decress, etc. And around judicial through ignoring them like Lincoln did with habeus corpus or super presidential pardon. Prez could pardon himself. Washington set good norms respecting instructions. Presidents show good restraint and respect for other branches. See Truman's steel industry seizure block by sc or Nixon turning over tapes. Fdr court packing effort triggered media interference and congressional opposition from across the aisle. Sc changed some of its decisions or maybe approved some of the new deals Spirit of reprocity prevent Congress from exerting power like filibuster and embarrassing attacks. Legistive work much more difficult if all enemies can't be talked to. Congress could block prez from approving his people and nominees. 90% of nominees are approved. Block of Obama pick unprecednted. Simple majority needed to impeach in house and 2/3 in senate. Could be demonized like in Ecuador. 3 huge tests! Roosevelt tested guardrail but bipartisan support against extreme power and 2 term limit enshrined. Mcarthism, red baiting become republican tactic. Eventually became unpopular. Nixon 3rd. Intelligence assault and irs became weapon. Norms were born in exclusion and people had things in common. Race polarizes.
The Unraveling
Senate don't appoint Obama's scj. Trump is a symptom of an ongoing problem. Newt Gingrich was first to call other side enemies and use intense rhetoric. He pulled party to him and became speaker. Politics as warfare for young republicans who wouldn't compromise and would corrupt. 1994 Republicans rejected forbearance in exchange for no compromise. Reagan impeached Clinton on a technicality. Republican presidents didn't call democrats terrorists, but journalists and fox news and big republicans did. Calling liberals Marxist and terrorist. Obama was linked to terrorists and call an assault on democracy. Yea party was conservative but kept insulting Obama calling him dictator and he is not a real American. Called him unamerican. 37% didn't believe he was born in american and 63% had doubt. 43% thought he was Muslim and majority thought he favored Muslims . Yea party absorbed in Republican party. Single thing Republican party wanted to do was make sure Obama didn't have a 2nd term. Paul Ryan and Mitch mconalle all instigated extreme filibuster. Obama did unilateral executive action and democrats remove filibuster for court appointment non scj. Brinkmanship of economy using debt ceiling as new tool though used to be routine. Republican were already planning to block Hillary Clinton's scj nominees for 4 years. 1960 child marries someone of other political party 4% displeases, 30% in 2010 would be somewhat or very unhappy. 70% and 62% of politically engaged democrats and republicans are afraid of opponent. Democrat anf republican had big tents with bipartisan support for some issues. After civil rights, republicans became De facto party of racial conservatism. New voters of immigrants of asian and latino is increasingly democratic. Married whites were 80% of electoral acrroa both parties in 1950a. Why repiblicans more norm breaking? Koch brothers and media players push people to inflexible positions. White Christians are a minority now hunkering down. White perceived themselves to be strangers in their own land.
Trump v Guardrails
Media overwhelming negative. Trump said no one has been treated mie unfairly then me. 3 ways to totalitarian: capture refs, rewrite rules, and sideline key players. Real hostility towards refs including fbi, cia, and nsa. Asked come for pledge of loyalty. Chavista laywer investigated orgeta and was fired. Attacks judges that rule against him like 9th circuit. Independent watchdog hates trumps conflicts of interests. Director was attacked and resigned. Republicans rejected some of these moves. Fake news mimics Stalin and map. CNN thinking of merge and Trump maybe rejecting order. Republicans did away with filibuster for scj, but rejected doing it entitely. Most troubling Trump action is the board on election to make it harder for poor to vote favoring republicans like voter id. 15 states pass this almost exclusively where republicans control state. Great national level mouthpiece. Little actual backside and guardrail held, often gradual. Trumps future depends on several factors. 1: Republican leaders, a few republicans oppose replacing investigation 2: as popularity wanes, oppositions more willing to stand up. 3: crisis, wars and attacks are political game changers and everyone receptive to authorities stuff. 6 of last 12 have foreign attacks. Past presidents have exercised forbearance and restriant in exercise increased power, Trump is unlikely to. Norm breaking can be normal. But he is so blatant. Through nepotism and not hold holdings. 70% of republicans believe there is fraud in democracy. And 60% believe he won popular vote, that is to say they were massively rigged. 52% republicans said they would support postponing. Trump rejects legitimacy of democracy. Trump lies everyday like real demonstartely false. A majority support media impression. All trumps norm breaking is making us redefine what is ok. Some guy bodyslammed a reporter and was convicted, but won elextion. Things unthinkable are now accepted, and democracy has been degraded for the future.
Protecting Democracy
S democracy in danger? Peak in 2005 and held steady. Trump seems to be abandoning democracy and is no longer a model. Autocrats now emboldened. China, russia, and Trump can help make a reality. 1: swift recovery, after he loses support and could improve our democracy. Unlikely because Trump is a continuation of Republican policies and polarization 2: Trump continues and manufactures durable white superiority including deportation and immigration reform. Difficult to find majorities giving up their power without a fight. 3: polarization increasing, democracy without guardrail. North Carolina and Republican power they first gerrymandered getting 9/13 of seats though more democrats. they got background on voters and made it harder to vote particularly for democrats and blacks. Before Democrat guy went in, republicans rewrote rules to reduce his power. Granted Senate power to approve cabinet picks and granted some boards equal opportunity. Struck down but still damnnnn. In congress Democrats feel sucker punched by dirth republican tricks and don't want to fight fair. People are calling they fight like republicans. Such an attack can backfire scaring moderates and forcing more battle. Chavez opposition went for coop and boycotted election giving him more power really. Even if they brought Trump go his knees, the government they receive would have no guardrails. Trump should be brought down by democratic institutions to strengthen them. Essential to make colitians with opponents. Find issues groups agree on and don't group all these issues together. Build up trust of adversities. Chile brought back democracy encouraging collaboration making sure to talk worn all leaders before submitting legislation. Usually happens when politicians look into abyss. Republiican party acting like anti system and weak leadership. Very sipsepectibl to outside forces. Need to rebuild or remake without appealing to white nationalism. Other solutions are addressing race and economic divides. Can leaders reorient Republican party before a castrophe. Some democrats say they need to back away from identity politics. Become more white and keep minorities away. Horrible idea, imperative we success in making a multi ethnic democracy. There has never been a multi ethnic democracy where one group wasn't on the majoeith. Resentment drives polarization, addess underlyong concerns. racially charged rethoric for welfare cuz poor are usually minorities. Ubi, social security, etc effectong everyone could have moderating effect. No one can save it or destroy democracy. "Democracy is the don't in don't shove is the dent in the