Homo Deus: A History of Tomorrow

by Harari, Yuval Noah

Published: January 1, 2015

Read: October 26, 2020

★★★★★

Review

This book basically takes the chapters on religion and the future from Sapiens and fleshes them out into their own book. In his trademark style, Harari dissects the human superpower as large scale, flexible cooperation through a shared religion(narratives of meaning and values). Religion covers Judeo-Christian and Eastern philosophy, but also capitalism(growth and progress lead to paradise) and humanism(existentialism). WW2 becomes another religious battle between different sects of humanism with different claims about the human condition. His model is powerful and intuitive. In the end, he concludes with this really weird religion called Dataism where contributing information to the machine is the highest value. While if I contort my mind it could be coherent, I really disagree that it could be an actual human belief system that motivates people. This bizarre conclusion, the many books I have read on similar topics, and some parts feeling lengthy left me with a bad taste in my mouth. But it could just be his blatant attack on my/all belief systems, we know no human likes that. Sadly, as he correctly argues, emerging technology means our reckoning is inevitable. With the potential of technologies like AI, bioengineering, "I don't think there is any chance whatsoever that people like us will just continue to have lives like us in 200 years". Either through destruction or changing humanity in a profound way. - Harari on the Tim Ferris Podcast

Notes

Famine, plague, and war were biggest worries of twentieth century China, medieval India, and ancient Egypt. Now these problems are basically conquered .

Famine: 1694 15% France died to Famine because of bad harvest. 1695 20% Estonia died. 1698 Finland and Scotland lost quarter of Pop. Not rescued from poverty it hunger, but have daily calories to survive. Today Famine and malnutrition kill 1 million and obesity kills 3.

Disease. Black death killed 25% of population. Blamed on angry God's. Up to 90% of native Americans died because of disease. Spanish flu killed more people than world war 1. Smallpox infected 15m and killed 2m in 1967. Eradicated in 2014. Within 10 years of aids, went from death sentence to chronic condition.

War. Ancient agricultural society. War accounted for 15% of deaths . 20th centru 5%. 21st 1%. More people commit suicide than are murdered or killed in war now. No real resources to seize, more intellectual.

The Human Spark

We like to think we have superior moral status than other animals. Does might make right, we are the most powerful. Is America more valuable than Africa? By looking a money flow yes. Souls? Contradicts evolution. 2012 Americans only 15 believe humans evolved through natural selection alone. 32% say humans evolved with god playing a role. 46% believe god created humans in their current form in the last 10k years. College didn’t change these views. Even PhD only 29% crest natural selection alone.” If you really understand evolution you understand there is no soul.” Soul is indivisible and constant, evolution is change. Conscious mind? Subjective experience is the most certain thing in the world. Robots don’t. Most up to date theories suggest it is just biological algorithms.

How can there be this contradiction in peoples mind between evolution and science and religion and god?

Scientists know little about the mind, but have correlated brain signals to various subjective experiences like sleep, awareness of image, specific object recognition like the Bill Clinton neutron. Millions of neurons moving create subjective experience, but how? Unknown. What is evolutionary benefit of consciousness.? If we can run futon from a Lion with biological processes, why do we need to feel fear? We could say for memories and planning or internal stimulus, but again these are stored in avalanches of signals and connections. What happens in the mind that didn’t happen in the brain? Perhaps need subjective experience to model self in the world. Autonomous cars don’t have concisousness. Perhaps mind is a bad theory like souls or God. But subjective experience is obviously real. Could just dismiss it though like Daniel Sennett and say ask relevant questions can be answered by looking at brain without confusing subjective experience. But subjective experience is basis of politics and ethics, what could be wrong with torture of it is reducible to electrical signals moving around brain.

Can you explain why torture or rape is wrong without reference to any subjective experience?

Consciousness could be waste product. Jet engines are loud, but sound doesn’t propel jet. We used to compare minds to steam engines, like Freudian sex drive releasing pressure just like a steam engine. We now use computers, but this could be equally naive. We currently believe humans when they say they are conscious and correlate to brain states then can even communicate with seemingly comatose patients. But if computer says it’s conscious, should we believe it? We could be a brain in a vat, or dream. No way to know we aren’t the only conscious thing. Since everything we experience is just touch, we could have virtual world and since there are likely many more virtual world we are very unlikely to be real. Turing test is replication of Turing experience where could he pass for a straight man. Doesn’t matter who you are, only matters what other people think? So should we treat animals as sentient or robotswhile the evidence comes in. New Zealand and other places have recognized sentience of animals. Many psychrtrwtic labs treat rats as similar to humans for hope and learned helplessness.

Can also say animals lack self consciousness of an enduring self with a past and future. Animals live in an eternal present. When dog jumps for joy is it because he recognizes you or responding to some unexplained ecstasy? Problem of Other Minds. Everything we see can also be explained by unconscious algs. Finally down from our pedestal, what made humans dominate. Tool production and intelligence. We were already the most intelligent and tool makers a million years ago but also insignificant. It was humans ability to flexibly communicate on a massive scale. Bees cooperate on massive scale, but can’t change their social structures overnight. Chimps cooperate flexible but based on personal relationships. In political unrest like post a Soviet Union Romania and Arab Spring Egypt, the demonstrators can demand change but those who seize power are the ones effiectively organized and connected to the right people for power, excommunist or army leaders. How can we cooperate flexible? Warm social rules of fairness and egalitarian. Even chimps will get mad if another chimp is given a bigger reward. But most human kingdoms extremely unequal. Ultimatum game has people reject low offers, but what about if played with two groups of 100M people. It’s hard to coordinate effectively so ruling class could emerge takes most of the money and distracts rest with punishment and afterlife rewards. About our ideas of imagined orders and inter subjective reality. “The lives of most people have meaning only within the network of stories they tell one another”. While crusaders in the Middle Ages gloriously went to fight the infidels and liberate the holy land they would be considered crazy beleiving the same today. But it glorious to join amnesty international and travel to Syria to protect human rights of refugees.history is these webs of meaning raveling and unraveling.

Storytellers

70k years ago the cognitive revolution enabled Sapiens to y’all about things in their imagination. 12k years ago agricultural revolution create stronger webs. Like someone worked for google, you could work for gods in Sumerian and pay and take loans from god. Really the temple priests, but couldn’t actually remember enough about everyone to grow very large. Limited to human memory. Then writing and money broke the limits in Sumerian 5k years ago. Pharaoh in Egypt become god combined role. Pharaoh was a man but more importantly existed in everyone’s mind as the bucrecarcy ruled everything. Just like Elvis who had agents, lawyers, and producers earn and sell millions, no real change for that apparatus after death. Bucrecarcy let’s each person be a step in a giant algorithm organized beyond one person knowledge or memory. Doesn’t matter who is the doctor if they execute right algorithm taught to them. Eygpt built a larger dam then the US through incredible cooperation. Gods of ancient Egypt built that dam as much as this abstract United States or google did. Writing made it easier to believe in imaginary things by habituation people to experience reality through symbols. 1940 as Nazis overran France, people tried to flee to Spain but needed visa. Portugal said no visas, but the consul in France disobeyed and for days stamped 30k people out. While he lost his office, the visas were respected. Mao tried to triple agricultural production and bucrecarcy at each level exaggerated numbers. So in 1958, the reported number was 50% more than reality and when Mao traded food, there was a huge famine. Often though reality gives way, what the form says is more important than reality. African country lines written by Europeans bucrecarcy who barely knew Africa before massive conquest was undertaken. Didn’t follow local landmarks or cultures, but was followed for peace. Education now has grades, but in Shakespeare’s day you either left college with a degree or without one. If you distort reality too much it weakens you, but you need fiction to organize society. Wont get far if you act like money is worthless. Holy scripture is similar. If book says religious will succeed and you look and the most religious successful you will notice the great match and become religious. Monotheists believe everything happens because of god, but ancient Greeks Historians acknowledged the complex social, political, and economic factor. But monotheism adopted by greeece as better for cooperation and goal setting. System works by its own measure, school raising test scores or Muslims have large numbers and spreading. The average peasant in these civilizations lived worse lives thanHunter gathers with longer less fulfilling work, more disease, worse hygiene and diet. We can’t play football if everyone doesn’t agree to the rules. But there is real suffering when I’m tackled, we need to know reality from fiction and not sacrifice to some cooperation or start a war for the glory of some god or country at cost of sentient beings.

Human Rights? Real or fake.

The odd couple

“It is often said that God helps those who help themselves. This is a roundabout way of saying god doesn’t exist” but if our belief in him inspires us to do something it helps. Sc

Religion is “any all-encompassing story that confers superhuman legitimacy on human laws, norms and values.”

Religions:

The time bomb in the lab

Cranial stimulation is in its infancy, but soon desire can be bought and sold. Could say this just enhances your will, but you will see there of no single self. Human Brian , left right brain. We rationalize. People would choose a minute of cold water 15C followed by 30 seconds of 16C over a minute of 15C somehow. Experiencing self should know better. Peak and end rule evaluating experience based on peak and end. Narrating self averages these two points not aggregates. Give candy at end of painful treatment. After birth, body releases pleasant hormones. Would often rather remember something than experience something amazing? Narrating self influences feeling like fasting during Ramadan. We identify with narrating self. Our boys didn’t die in vain syndrome, we cling to the story the more we sacrifice to it. Worse to say you made a mistake and sacrificed to false gods. Underlies religious sacrifice. Can infuse twist with meaning like injury in war inspires us to advocate for peace. We jumble together media for coherent story about who we are how we got here and where we are going. Narrating self raging against meaningless of universe though. Dawkins and Pinker argue about no free will, but still advocate for liberalism. But soon, the technology will show practically refusals of this idea.

The great decoupling

Three practical developments make view of free, unique humans as value individuals obsolete:

humans will lose their economic and military usefulness, hence economic and political system will stop attaching value to them.
System will continue to find value in collective humans, but not individual
The system will still find value in some unique individuals but these will constitute a new elite of upgraded super humans rather than the mass of the population.

Liberalism succeeded because there was great economic and military sense in ascribing value to every individual. Workers with rights perform better than dictators. Women suffrage in us after women greatly helped WW1. Advanced armies though now highly specialized people and machinery. Cyberwar could be lost in minutes. Autonomous drones will beat human ones. Robot algs could even be more ethical adhering to ethical rulings by a chicane of code. Will we still have human rights when most valuable workers way more valuable than masses. Intelligence decoupled from consciousness. Horses can do much more than cars, but cars win because we just want to get from point a to b. Same with many workers. From traders to drivers to lawyers even who do mostly paperwork and analysis. Doctors and teachers that can know everything about you. Problems with tech but only needs to be solved one then infinite doctors. Some say need human touch but could that really be better than ai that perfectly correlated your emotions and tells you what you need to hire with millions of experiences to work off of. 2010 2 percent in agriculture, 20 in industry, and rest service like teachers and doctors. But, we won’t always have edge over algs.

Organisms are algs made by natural selection
Algs not affected by materials it’s made from
No reason to think inorganic can’t do everything organic can do

Even winning facial recognition now, when considered very difficult decades ago. Play all Atari games. Oakland’s As changed the game. Human specialization makes replacement even easier. Wealth and power can be squeezed into ruling class that has alg. Maybe alg granted similar status as countries and orgs and can own land and be sued. Algorithmic upper class, like gods and google. Is even art safe, not really. Hard to tell difference between current music and human produced and Bach. Unemployable class could be future. 2013 declared half of us jobs at high risk of automation in next 20 years. Archaeologists least likely because high pattern recognition and not profitable. What will people do? Maybe drugs and video games and what so sacred about that. Ai could get us. This is not a prophecy but a possibility, political and tech can slow down advancement. Algs can know us better than ourselves tearing down liberalism ideals. People will learn to see themselves not as individuals but biological machines guided by algs. Quantified self about understanding your own patterns. Wise elders now more of a myth because we live too long allowing minds and bodies to decrease. Sacrifice privacy and autonomy for health by listening to alg. Liberal habits like elections will be obsolete. 100 item personality questionnaire pitted Facebook predictions against your friends. 10 likes outperform colleagues, 70 to outperform friends, 150 to outperform family, and 300 to outperform spouses. People might abandon their own decisions when making important life decisions like romantic spouses and career paths.

Trust waze over feelings. Right now oracle but could be agent with more trust driving your car through best route. Our agents could represent us and be our life companions helping us and even negotiating and gaining power for us. Send our ai instead of CV. Ai not alarm clock because can manipulate us, so who does it serve our narrating or experiencing self. Fueled more by biology than computer science deciding humans are algs. Not careful Orwellian police state as pursuit of bliss and health drives us more to algs. Liberalism says all experience from billionarie to African farmer are equal as they are just human, but could enhance elite so far beyond anything before. 62 people hold wealth of entire bottom half. Elite will have cutting edge making true divine myths of old. Some say medicine always tickles down, but this of medicine that will upgrade healthy. State may even not care about lower classes when it’s not useful to. Way to compete internationally might be upgraded elite.

The Ocean of Consciousness

Techno religions of happiness, peace and eternal life but with tech. Data religion argues we should pass torch to new entities. Technohumanism sees humans as apex of creation and clings to many humanist values. Home deus should be created that is superior humans. Evolutionary humanism except not selective breeding but tech. But we don’t really understand the mind, most studies about the abnormal mentally ill or WEIRD, western educated industrialized rich and democratic. One study found 96% of individuals in best psych journal were weird mostly psychology students. Modern western culture pretty unique in lacking specialized class of people seeki n elevated mental states like monks or shamans of old. Huge possible mental spectrum from bats to neathrandals we don’t know about. In seeking upgrading mental now, positive psychology trendiest subfield. Archaic humans had much better sense of small and awareness, don’t need that now some loss but useful for modern society. Using awareness helmet like military trying could numb our ability to tolerate confusion. Mix engining minds with a huge lack of understanding and narrow goals of orgs or govs we have problems. We may end up downgraded. Goats domesticated to be more stupid and we might too to serve system. Techno humanism expects our desires to direct what to enhance. But inner voices and anxieties of your marriage or job can be dialed down with medicine. Medicine has proved lives but this focus on own desires has destroyed many. Might be best to shut some of these voices off. If no authentic self how to choose what voices? If human desire imbues world with meaning, what if we can now choose our desires. What if Romeo could decide who to love and retract it at any time. Bolder technohumanism doesn’t base itself on human desire but data, Dataism.

The Data Religion

Universe consists of data flow and value is by what something contributes to data processing. Might seem weird, but basically science establishment. Same laws to data and biological algs. A single overarching theory. Beethoven, stock exchange bubble, and virus can all be analyzed with same basic concepts of data flow. Originally data turns to knowledge to wisdom. Dataism says humans can’t process immense data and trust big data and algs. Free market and communist are competing data processing units. Stock exchange great data processing unit. High taxation means more central planning. Capitalism won because distributed data processing better. Likewise capitalism and communism are competing mechanism for central processing. Centralized planning with algs might make a comeback. Technological progress outpacing political progress. Internet almost lawless place of supreme importance. Biotech and ai decisions will be made outside governments as democracy can’t process the data fast enough. World is changing so fast, voters can feel power shifting away from them but don’t know where it has gone. Authoritative rulers of old had great visions of the future, now with so much opportunity they still going for nukes so boring. Politicians thinking on much shorter time scales. Instead hand of market leading us, but markets do what is good for it not us. Few billionaires couldn’t possibly control it even understand world. Can analysis history as a giant data proceeding unit with humans the chips. 1. Increasing the number of processors with more people cooperating. 2. Increasing variety of processors by specialization 3. Increasing connections with trade and knowledge Mets 4. Increasing freedom of movement. Cognitive revolution connected sapiens into huge webs. Diversification of humans as spread across globe. Agricultural rev brought more dense humans with trade routes. Writing and money supercharged human cooperation forming huge units of kingdoms. Imperialism merged world again. Like capitalism it started a s theory, but dataism is becoming religious telling right form wrong with Supreme value of dataism ring information flow. Humans tools for creating internet of all things throughout universe. Merge into universe like dreams of old. Ray Kurzweil book the singularity is near. Link everything evens those that don’t want to all things that have info. Sin is block data flow. Great to have new value, last one was human rights in the 1800s. Freedom of information not given to humans but the info. Swartz published guerilla open access manifesto which demanded fre and unlimited info flow. Capitalists believe all good things depend on growth, dataism believe all good things come from free information including growth. Less individual achievements and more group ones like Wikipedia. Invisible hand of data flow as more is out there and understood. Data religion says you are part of something bigger than yourself and the alg cares about you you you. Experiences valueless if not shared. Humans more valuable because we turn experience to data and are part of this. Fifth symphony better than other song because it has more data snot about human experience. And if we find better data processors then replace humans with them. Dataism undermines humanism and changes our behavior like impactful ideas do. Over evolution Said our feelings were evolved and encapsulate wisdom, not algs will do even better and encapsulate evenMore question. About tracking yourself. Will anything be lost by our replacement? Once we abandon him centric in favor of data centric, human health and happiness become less important. In the past censorship censored info, now it floods us with irrelevant info.

Short term focus on, Middle East, slowing growth in China, and refugee crisi. Medium term focus on global warming, inequality, and job distribution. But longer term:

science is converging one all encompassing dogma that’s says orgs are algorithms and life is data processing
Intelligence is decoupled from consciousness
No conscious but highly intelligent algs will soon know us better than we know ourselves

Raise three key questions:

are orgs really just algs and is life really just data processing?
What’s more valuable intelligence or consciousness?
What will happen to society politics and daily life when non conscious but highly intelligent algorithms know us better than we know ourselves?